Petra Sinagl
Assistant Professor of Finance
Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa
petra-sinagl@uiowa.edu
Hi, I’m Petra, and my research is in equilibrium asset pricing and macro-finance, with a focus on how investors form beliefs. I study how investors learn about risks they have not seen before, how recessions and the fear of recessions are priced, and how the expectations of investors, analysts, and professional forecasters can be used to test asset-pricing theory. My work combines equilibrium models with empirical analysis of asset prices, firm fundamentals, and survey data.
One line of my research studies recessions and crises. I examine how the arrival of a new aggregate risk, and gradual learning about its severity, shape risk premia, return volatility, and valuations; how fear of a recession changes the price of cash-flow risk; and how long-run shocks move the term structure of equity yields. A second line studies belief formation. Using survey forecasts, I ask why the equity premium that investors expect differs from the one realized historically, how investors and forecasters learn about corporate profitability, and how disagreement among investors affects asset prices, leverage, and households that do not invest in the stock market.
Through my research, I aim to understand how beliefs and macroeconomic risk jointly determine asset prices, and to provide insights that are relevant for investors, policymakers, and financial institutions.
Current papers
- Asset Pricing with the Awareness of New Riskswith Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen and Philipp Illeditsch
- Learning about Expected Profitabilitywith Kewei Hou. Best Paper Award, Silicon Prairie Finance Conference 2026
- Effects of Financial Speculation on Householdswith Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen and Philipp Illeditsch
- Recession Fear and the Price of Cash-flow RiskSolo-authored